Carson Williams is one of the most fascinating prospects in baseball. According to some folks, he’s doomed to be a glove-only shortstop due to his extremely low-grade hit tool. Others think he has MVP-caliber upside, with enough power and speed to complement his elite glove. Where will he actually end up? Perhaps somewhere in the middle, or maybe those hit tool concerns are big enough to warrant skepticism. Time to get into a breakdown of Carson Williams’ strengths and drawbacks, and where he could go with his career.
Carson Williams’ Strengths and How They Translate to the Majors
Williams’ greatest strength has been obvious since his major league debut last season. His glove is already probably good enough to be considered one of the best at the shortstop position. He’s got a rocket arm from his time as a two-way prospect in high school. The athletic ability is off the charts, and he’s shown a very natural feel for the spot, especially considering his size. There’s virtually no concern about his ability to stick at shortstop long-term.
All very good, but he has a few other complementary parts of his game that could translate well to the bigs. His speed is very underrated, as he’s stolen over 20 bags in each of his past 3 seasons in the minors. That is very dependent on him getting on base in the first place, which is a concern, but that’s for later.
WATCH: “He’s trusting himself a little bit more defensively.”#Rays shortstop Carson Williams was flashing the leather in today’s spring training game with the Red Sox. Kevin Cash is impressed with Williams’ glove.
Video and interview courtesy of Chris Tilley. pic.twitter.com/R6g7z0qRy1
— Mark Skol, Jr. (@markskoljrTV) February 26, 2026
Another promising aspect of Williams’ game is his raw power. FanGraphs has him as a potential future 60-grade in that aspect, and his numbers at Triple-A Durham support that idea. He posted an 11.4% barrel rate, had a maximum exit velocity of 111.7 MPH, and had a 77th percentile pulled fly ball rate.
What that all means is he hit the ball hard, has the potential to hit it extremely hard, and does it the right way by pulling balls in the air. How will that power translate to the majors? Well, that depends on one of his major, glaring weaknesses.
Can He Improve on His Weaknesses?
Williams’ biggest weakness will absolutely hold him back in the majors for a while, if not his whole career. It’s his bat-to-ball skills, which are very worrisome. His strikeout rate was already awful at Triple-A last year, coming in at 34.1%. He had a 19th percentile zone contact rate to boot, meaning he was whiffing at a lot of strikes.
Those types of things don’t tend to get better in the majors; they tend to get worse. Barring a major, unforeseen adjustment in his swing or approach, this is who he is as a player. The question will be whether it can at least become manageable in this department.
His current state isn’t playable in the bigs, as he’s going to run some gross contact numbers. And if you can’t put the ball in play enough, it doesn’t matter how hard you hit it when you do.
Pitchers don’t have to respect Williams; he’s shown he struggles with off-speed pitches enough to make him an easy out. It’s unfortunate because other than this one weakness, he’s a pretty complete player. But this one weakness is the most important aspect of a position player prospect’s profile.
Player Floor Comparison: Javier Báez (minus 2025)
Notice this isn’t prime Javier Báez, or even Báez from last season. No, the floor for Williams is Báez with the Detroit Tigers for most of his time in the Motor City. Which, granted, given that Williams won’t be making the type of money Báez was during those years, isn’t completely useless. Unfortunately, it’s also not very good. Lots of strikeouts, chases, and not a whole lot of offense. A bit of power and some solid defense, but not good enough to warrant an everyday role.
Williams doesn’t have the versatility of Báez, which makes even this comparison a bit higher than it probably should be. And yet, the upside is high enough, and the fact that he is still a pre-arbitration player makes it a lot easier to swallow.
Player Ceiling Comparison: 2017 Andrelton Simmons
A lazy thing to do here would’ve been to just say Báez from his time with the Cubs. And this Andrelton Simmons comparison isn’t perfect.
The Curaçao native was a very contact-oriented hitter, very much hit-over-power in terms of his production. But in 2017, he did manage to hit 17 bombs. And, well, his glove speaks for itself.
So if Williams does manage to figure out how to make his contact ability manageable, this is a very obtainable ceiling. The idea that he can manage anything much more than that is hard to imagine in a realistic sense.
As previously mentioned, Williams’ level of strikeout rates doesn’t tend to be reversed in a meaningful way. But if he can get them to at least below-average and not league-worst, he’ll be an excellent player for years to come.
Simmons was a very valuable player, and the Rays would be very lucky for Carson Williams to sustain his type of production.
Main Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images