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Predicting the Rays best month in first half of 2024

February 25, 2024 by Drays Bay


Attempting to, anyway…

Baseball is a streaky game. At times it feels like a team is unbeatable and cannot stop scoring, and other times it feels like someone put holes in everyone’s bats.

The Rays have been no strangers to this phenomenon, as it was only last season they got out to one of the hottest starts in the history of baseball by going 13-0 in the first 13 games of the season and reaching a mark of 35-15 at the 50 game mark of the season.

This hot streak would only last so long though, as the Rays would eventually get swept in October in the AL Wild Card Series by the eventual champion Texas Rangers, not scoring a single run in the series.

Using historical data to look ahead to the approaching 2024 season, is it possible to predict what months the 2-time AL Pennant winning franchise will start rolling?

Prognostication Process

Since 2020, the Rays have had a winning percentage of 58.7%, so the odds of the Rays having a good month any month are more likely than not; however, there are three categories where they have an unusually high winning percentage.

For simplicity’s sake, I’ve combined March and April into one month since there are only four games in the month of march on the Rays schedule in 2024. All data was acquired via teamrankings.com.

Observation 1: Second Game of Double Headers — 87.5% Win Percentage

This one may be a little complicated, as doubleheaders aren’t scheduled into the year making it completely unpredictable. However, last season there were five doubleheaders in March/April, three in May, four in June, and five in July.

These doubleheader games are very advantageous to Tampa Bay, as they are 7-1 in second games of doubleheaders since 2020.

Tampa Bay Rays v Los Angeles Angels - Game Two
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Randy Arozarena #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates a two-run home run with Jose Siri #22 against the Los Angeles Angels in the sixth inning of game two of a doubleheader at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 19, 2023 in Anaheim, California.

This is perhaps due to the Rays style of deep bullpens and rarely having starting pitchers in the game past the second time through the order.

Observation 2: Non-League Games — 61.6% Win Percentage

The Rays have also proven to do well facing off against teams in the National League, with a record of 69-43 since the 2020 campaign.

There are many opportunities in the first half of 2024 for the Rays to rack up wins against NL opponents, but none more than the month of June that has the Rays taking on five national league opponents, when they’ll be facing the Marlins, Braves, Cubs, Pirates, and Nationals.

Observation 3: Games Following One Off-Day — 59.2% Win Percentage

It’s not earth-shattering to hear that teams win more games after taking a day off; however, it can be an important factor when predicting hot streaks.

This is a category that sees May and June as the most favorable for Tampa Bay this upcoming season, each with four games following one day off, however March/April isn’t far behind with three games.

Crystal Ball Conclusion

When considering these three factors for the Rays success, there is a strong chance that June will be the most successful month for Tampa Bay pre-All Star Break this season.

That month sees the Rays face off against four teams with a preseason win total less than or the same as Tampa Bay (Marlins, Cubs, Pirates, Nationals), while also having the most non-league games (Marlins, Cubs, Braves, Pirates, Nationals) and games following one day off (June 4th, 7th, 18th, and 28th).

So if you’re looking for a month to get your tickets, the numbers suggest the month of June is going to be a fun one for Tampa Bay Rays fans. The Rays will be home June 7-12 and 24-30, with plenty of notable giveaways.


Filed Under: Rays

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