The AL East is slated to be the most difficult division in baseball in 2026. Legitimately, four teams in this division could make the postseason and I don’t thing any of us will be surprised.
We are about half way through spring training, and while numbers and stats in the spring do not count or matter, or correlate so success, some observations can be made. Let’s break down how I have the AL East shaking out in 2026.
New York Yankees (95-67)
The Yankees lost the AL East in 2025 on a tie-breaker to the Blue Jays. This offseason, a lot has been made of the Yankees ‘running it back’, and it should only help them and not hurt them. The players in the clubhouse through reporting and the manager have been clear that the Yankees ‘running it back’ was a good thing because of how they played post trade deadline.
Last year, some of their early season starts came from Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman. Replacing those two with Cam Schlittler and Ryan Weathers is a huge difference.
For the Yankees, it all comes down to health. If Gerrit Cole comes back and is 75% of the pitcher who walked off the mound in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, that alone could be the difference in the division.
The Yankees also had the best lineup in baseball, statistically, in 2025, and it should only get better. Anthony Volpe will be missing the first month of the season which will give Jose Caballero a look to earn the job.
Yes, Giancarlo Stanton will likely need a month off due to health at some point during the season, but the Yankees will have Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones waiting in the wings at AAA to fill the void. The Yankees depth, both offensive and pitching. is undeniable.
What could be their demise?
The one thing that could be the demise to the Yankees is the bullpen. That can be fixed in early August, but the Yankees have a hole in the bullpen if nobody exceeds expectations early in the season. Some guys like Jake Bird, Angel Chivilli and Brent Headrick have impressed in spring training so far.
Toronto Blue Jays (93-69)
The Blue Jays were about as close to winning a World Series as you can possibly get to without winning it. I have them finishing second in the AL East in 2026. They went out this offseason and brought in a solid starter, Dylan Cease, and replaced Bo Bichette for Kazuma Okamoto. Toronto also added Tyler Rodgers to a bullpen that needed some help after struggling last season.
There is a reason I have Toronto coming in second place — their offense over-exceeded expectations by a lot and was very lucky. According to the MLB Luck Rankings, Toronto finished the 2025 season with a 10.00 Rating, ranking 2nd in all of MLB (trailing only Miami). This rating indicates that their actual win-loss record (94-68) was significantly higher than their “expected” record based on run differential and advanced performance metrics.
We can only assume that the offense for Toronto regresses a bit after last season. They also lost Bichette. They did not have him in the postseason, but he had one of the highest batting averages in baseball during the regular season, and they will miss that prediction in their lineup.
Toronto’s rotation will be better this season. Replacing Chris Bassitt with Cease should benefit the Jays. Their bullpen is still suspect and missing Anthony Santander for another full season won’t help them.
I still expect Toronto to be among the best teams in the AL.
Baltimore Orioles (88-74)
The Orioles did a lot of work this offseason to improve their team from where they were in 2025. I have them improving from where they were in 2025, but finishing in third place in the AL East.
The Orioles’ offseason was defined by a massive pivot toward veteran power and stability. The headline addition is undoubtedly Pete Alonso, who signed a five-year, $150 million deal to anchor the middle of the lineup. Mike Elias also bolstered the outfield by trading for Taylor Ward from the Angels, providing a much-needed right-handed bat to complement the young core. On the pitching side, the Orioles addressed their thin rotation by trading for Shane Baz from Tampa Bay and reuniting with Zach Eflin, while veteran Chris Bassitt was brought in on a one-year deal to provide a high-floor presence. To fix a bullpen that struggled in 2025, the O’s signed high-leverage arm Ryan Helsley and re-acquired Andrew Kittredge, ensuring the late innings are more secure than they were a year ago.
Looking ahead to the 2026 season, the Orioles are poised for a significant jump from their disappointing 75-87 finish in 2025. The primary engine for improvement is the expected maturation of their ‘generational’ young core — Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday — who are now joined by top rookies Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers. The addition of Alonso and Ward should alleviate the pressure on these young stars, creating a more balanced lineup that won’t go through the same prolonged scoring droughts.
Rotation Improvement
Moreover, the revamped pitching staff, led by a healthy Kyle Bradish and the newly acquired Baz and Bassitt, should drastically lower a team ERA that was a major liability in 2025. With a more veteran-heavy roster and the “human element” of new manager Craig Albernaz, the Orioles are moving away from being a “rebuilding project” and into a win-now window.
Boston Red Sox (85-77)
Boston made the 2025 postseason for the first time since 2021. They improved, but offseason losses of Alex Bregman and no Rafiel Devers has me placing them in fourth place in 2026.
The Red Sox prioritized rotation stability and cleared an outfield logjam. They signed left-hander Ranger Suárez for five years and $130 million. Boston also acquired veteran starter Sonny Gray and first baseman Willson Contreras from the Cardinals. Isiah Kiner-Falefa joined the infield on a one-year deal. Jordan Hicks was traded to the White Sox for Gage Ziehl. The Brewers traded utility depth Caleb Durbin to Boston.
2026 success depends on a healthy, revamped rotation with elite depth. Garrett Crochet, Gray, and Suárez anchor a strong starting staff. The team abandoned the revolving door pitching strategy of 2025. Boston expects a surge from breakout stars like Roman Anthony. Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu lead a maturing young core. Contreras and Kiner-Falefa provide steady production at first base.
Another question lies in the role that Marcelo Mayer will play in 2026. It seems that the organization is not too high on Mayer compaired to their other young prospects, but his talent should not be discounted.
The roster is now better built to support its young talent. Boston aims to turn a Wild Card exit into a deep run.
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
The Rays missed the 80-win mark in 2025 for the first time since 2016. I have them finishing fifth in the AL East with a 77-85 record.
Tampa Bay prioritized the future by trading away starter Shane Baz and Brandon Lowe. They also sent outfielder Josh Lowe to the Angels in a three-team swap. The front office added veteran center fielder Cedric Mullins on a one-year deal. Second baseman Gavin Lux joined the team to fill the middle infield vacancy. The Rays signed left-hander Steven Matz and Nick Martinez to stabilize the rotation. They acquired prospects like Jacob Melton and Ben Williamson to restock the system.
Improvement in 2026 relies on a bounce-back year from a healthy Shane McClanahan. The team needs Junior Caminero to emerge as a consistent middle-of-the-order threat. Yandy Díaz remains the offensive anchor as he enters his mid-thirties. The Rays lack high-end depth compared to their big-spending division rivals.
They will likely rely on incremental gains and defensive versatility to compete. If the team falls behind early, they may become sellers at the deadline. A 77-win season reflects a roster caught between a rebuild and contention. The tough AL East schedule makes a postseason return unlikely this year.
The Last Word
The AL East is up for grabs. I can see each of the four teams that I have finishing over .500 winning the division. It will be the most competitive division in baseball because of how much talent there is across all five teams. Watching this division fight through the summer is going to be cinema.
(Top Image Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images)