Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our esteemed team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this installment, we will be making predictions on the New York Islanders versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: TV: MSGSN, The Spot
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they come into this game in the middle of a slump. After a great road trip, they have not kept up that level of play on this home stand. They have lost the last three-straight games and have dropped four of the last five. One thing to look at is the lack of offensive production, which helped boost them to winning all those road games. In four of the last five games, they have been held to one or fewer goals. This slump has dropped them down to 22nd in goals for with 2.88 per game.
With the news that Kyle Palmieri is now lost for the season due to a torn ACL, generating offence will be a lot harder. Palmieri was playing in a top-six role and had 18 points in 25 games. The team will look to their stars to fill that void. Team point leader Bo Horvat has 26 in 26 games. However, he has only recorded one point in the last five games. Mathew Barzal, as well, has two points in the last five games. The team will need these two to heat up again to carry the offence moving forward.
While the offence has hit its struggles, the defence and goaltending have been a little better. Over the last seven games, they have had two shutouts and two other games holding their opponent to two goals or less. The strong play has moved them up to 12th in goals-against-per-game with 2.85. Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich have been a formidable tandem thus far. Sorokin is 7-8-2 with a .900 save percentage and two shutouts. Rittich hasn’t lost in regulation in his last four starts. He is 6-2-1 with a .901 save percentage. Neither goalie has been announced for this game yet
Tampa Bay Lightning Story
The Lightning come into this game riding high as the hottest team in the NHL. They have won their last seven games in a row. They have done it with a red-hot offence, one that has scored four or more goals in five of the seven games on this streak. This run has them ranked eighth in the league in goals for with 3.36 per game. Led as always by Nikita Kucherov, he has 32 points in 23 games. He is scorching hot and has a nine-game, 18-point streak heading into this one. Bringing balance to their top six is Jake Guentzel, who is second on the team in points. He has 27 in 25 games. He is also on a heater, finishing the month of November with 10 goals and seven assists over 14 games.
Defensively, the Lightning are just as good. Tied for third in the league in goals-against-per-game with just 2.60. They hold the number one penalty kill in the league at an 88.8% kill rate. In five of the seven wins on their streak, they have held their opponents to one goal or less. The scary part is that this great play has all been done without two of their top defenders in Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, who are both currently on IR. It helps when the defence is anchored by one of the league’s best goalies. Andrei Vasilevskiy is just that; he is 11-5-2 and fourth in the league with a .917 save percentage. Backup Jonas Johansson makes up the second half of a good tandem. He doesn’t play much but plays well when he does. Winner of his last two starts, he is 5-2 with an .895 save percentage. Neither goalie has been announced for this game.
Prediction
When looking at this game on paper, it feels like a mismatch for the Islanders. The Lightning are top 10 in both offence, defence and hold the number one penalty kill. That gives sizable advantages in both of these areas. Depending on the goalies, the Islanders could have the advantage there. The Islanders also have the home ice advantage. However, due to the electric offence and stifling defence of Tampa Bay, we don’t think that will come into play much in this one. All signs point to the Lightning coming into New York and extending their winning streak to a league-best eight games.
Prediction: Lightning win 4-2
Prop Bet
According to the popular sportsbooks, the Lightning are the heavy favourite. We like their money line at -138. The over/under is set at 6.5. Due to the Islanders’ struggling offence and the Lightnings’ great defence, we would lean towards the under at -138 as well. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Bo Horvat at +160. He has been slumping recently, and if New York wants any chance to win, he will need to produce. For the Lightning, take the hottest player in the league, Nikita Kucherov. He has been on a tear and should continue that in this game.
Main Photo Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
The post NHL Predictions Dec. 2 New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.