Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our esteemed team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this installment, we will make predictions for the New York Islanders versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions: New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: TV MSGSN, The Spot
2025-26 Season Series: Islanders lead 2-0
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents meeting for the third time this month. Both teams are holding a strong standing in their respective Divisions. The Islanders are currently sitting third in a very competitive Metropolitan Division. Through 32 games, they are 18-11-3, good enough for 39 points on the season. For the Lightning, they stand atop the pack in the Atlantic Division. They hold a record of 18-11-2 through 31 games, which has them at 38 points. This is the third and final matchup of the season between these two. The first two were split up, one in New York, the other in Tampa, with the Islanders winning both. This final meeting will take place on Long Island inside the UBS Arena.
The Islanders Story
The Islanders come into this game winners of five of their last six and on a two-game winning streak. The return of the offensive production has contributed to this, as they have scored five or more goals in three of the five wins. This has the team at 19th in the league with 2.97 goals for per game.
However, with the news that team point leader Bo Horvat could be out one-to-three weeks with a lower-body injury, those numbers could be hard to replicate. The good news for him is that there seems to be no structural damage, and head coach Patrick Roy called him day-to-day. Mathew Barzal replaces Horvat on the top line and will need to do even more to fill the void that will be left without him. The good news is that there will be a reinforcement coming back for this game. This comes in the form of Jonathan Drouin, who has missed the last five games with a back injury. He should immediately give a needed boost to the top six, and it comes at a good time.
While the offence has been doing well, it is the defence that has really stepped up for the Islanders. They are top 10 in goals-against-per-game with 2.75, which is eighth in the NHL. They have the fifth-ranked penalty kill at 84.4% kill rate. Those factors have led to the goaltending tandem being among the league’s best. David Rittich won the last game and has been one of the best backups in the league. He is 7-3-1 with a .905 save percentage. Ilya Sorokin, who will start this game, has returned to his elite form and is one of the league’s best goaltenders. He has won his last four starts and is 11-8-2 with a .910 save percentage.
Tampa Bay Lightning Story
For the Lightning, they come into this game also on a two game winning. This came on the heels of a four-game losing streak where they were shutout twice. They have responded with six and eight goals in their last two wins. Even after the up and down stretch they still are still dangerous eighth in the league in goals for with 3.29. Led by Nikita Kucherov and his 40 points in 28 games. Coming off a game where he had four assists. Brayden Point gives the team balance playing the second line centre role. He has had back-to-back games of two points after missing seven games recently. His return his given the team a shot in the arm offensively.
Defensively Tampa puts up solid numbers as well. In five of the last seven games, they have allowed two goals or fewer. That has them as the fourth ranked team at 2.58 goals-against-per-game. The news that Victor Hedman will need elbow surgery won’t make it easy to maintain those numbers. However, he did miss 12 games before coming back for just three so they had successes without him in the past. Impressively they have held strong with superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy on the IR, missing the last five games with an undisclosed injury. It will be Jonas Johansson again in net for Tampa. He has won the last two games and holds a 7-5 record with a .905 save percentage.
Prediction
On paper both these teams are fairly evenly matched. Both teams sitting top 10 in the league as far as points go. Offensively Tampa has the advantage especially with no Bo Horvat for the Islanders. However due to injuries for Tampa on their blueline and in their net. We feel that gives slight advantages to the Islanders in those areas. We think those edges and the home ice advantage will lead the Islanders to a third straight win.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bet
According to the popular sportsbooks, the Islanders are home underdogs. We like that value and would take their money line at +112. The over/under is set at 5.5, due to these teams great offences we like the over at -128. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Jonathan Drouin at +380. His first game back against the team that drafted him, look for him to make an impact right away. For the Lightning take Jake Guentzel at +170. He is second on the team in goals and has a history of scoring against the Islanders from his time in Pittsburgh.
Main Photo: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions Dec. 13 New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.