Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Lightning.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Gage Goncalves – Even on a relatively deep Lightning team, Goncalves successfully parlayed an impressive run with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch into a full-time role at the NHL level. From 2022 to 2024, Goncalves scored 26 goals and 112 points in 140 AHL contests, with another four goals and 11 points in 12 postseason contests. This gave Tampa Bay the confidence to allow Goncalves a longer-term opportunity at the NHL level, and his tryout proved successful by all accounts. Goncalves scored eight goals and 20 points in 60 games for the Lightning while averaging 12:48 of ice time per night, and achieved a 92.0% on-ice save percentage at even strength. Given the roster flexibility he affords and arbitration eligibility status, Goncalves should earn a healthy bump on his $775K salary from last year, but it’ll likely be less than double.
Other RFAs: F Jaydon Dureau, F Ryder Korczak, F Waltteri Merela, G Hugo Alnefelt
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Nicklaus Perbix – Over the last three years, Perbix has scored 13 goals and 63 points in 220 regular-season contests, with a 51.2% CorsiFor% at even strength, and a 91.0% on-ice save percentage. This is a quality value for a defenseman who has averaged less than 16 minutes of ice time per game and has been playing on a $1.125MM AAV for the last two seasons. Unfortunately, his performance might have made it too expensive for him to continue with Tampa Bay. AFP Analytics projects Perbix to command a two-year, $5.2MM contract this offseason, which would take up almost 75% of the Lightning’s available cap space. Ultimately, the team will likely look for a cheaper right-handed option to fill in the gap or use a combination of Steven Santini and Maxwell Crozier next season.
F Luke Glendening – The University of Michigan alumnus may no longer have the capacity to score 20 points a year, nor is he in danger of receiving fringe votes for the Selke Trophy, but Glendening still holds value in a niche role. He remains one of the most effective faceoff takers in the league, winning 56.5% of his 1,829 draws taken with the Lightning. Given that he started 66.7% of his shifts in the defensive zone with Tampa Bay, Glendening ultimately gave the Lightning a better chance to retain possession and have an effective breakout. Still, even without the same faceoff talent, there may be better options available for Tampa Bay this offseason, at a similar league-minimum salary.
Other UFAs: F Cam Atkinson, F Anthony Angello, F Logan Brown, F Gabriel Fortier, D Derrick Pouliot, D Tobie Paquette-Bisson, G Matt Tomkins
Projected Cap Space
As alluded to earlier when talking about Perbix, the Lightning will again be limited by the salary cap this summer. Although there are no expectations this offseason, it is important to remember that Tampa Bay faced a similar situation last offseason and successfully acquired and signed the market’s top unrestricted free agent, Jake Guentzel. General Manager Julien BriseBois has shown time and time again that the Lightning can never truly be counted out of any available player, and it’ll be another interesting study to see how he weaponizes Tampa Bay’s projected $3.4MM in cap space this summer.