As the NFL regular season winds down, the NFL playoff picture contenders vs pretenders are becoming clearer. Some teams look strong in the standings but are showing cracks at the worst possible time. Others are peaking late and feel built for January football. Records alone do not tell the full story. Momentum, health, and how teams respond under pressure will determine who survives the postseason.
NFL Playoff Picture: Teams on Shaky Ground vs True Contenders
Teams on Shaky Ground
The Green Bay Packers looked like legitimate contenders for much of the season. That changed once injuries began to pile up. A crucial Week 14 home win over Chicago kept Green Bay in a strong position, but the following weeks exposed how fragile the roster has become. The loss of Micah Parsons to a torn ACL was devastating. Replacing that level of pass-rush impact is nearly impossible, and the defense has taken a noticeable step back since.
Injuries have hit every level of the roster. Receivers Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden have both battled injuries all year. Christian Watson never played the full season. Josh Jacobs has been banged up for weeks. Tucker Kraft was lost to an ACL injury. The offensive line has been in constant flux. Now Jordan Love’s concussion suffered against Chicago puts even more uncertainty on the offense. Green Bay enters a tough matchup against Baltimore, still fighting for playoff positioning, but they appear to be a team limping toward January. It’s fair to say they are limping into the playoffs and a one-and-done exit feels very possible.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another concerning team. Tampa has lost six of its last seven games and is currently riding a three-game losing streak. That slide is surprising given the offensive talent on the roster. Baker Mayfield started the season playing at an MVP-caliber level, but his play has dropped off significantly. Mayfield has 7 interceptions in his last 9 games. Turnovers and stalled drives have become a regular issue.
Tampa still controls its playoff fate despite currently being out of the playoff picture. Winning out would likely secure a spot, with a crucial Week18 matchup against Carolina looming. The problem is the defense. Tampa’s secondary has been consistently exposed, and opposing quarterbacks have had little trouble moving the ball. While the Buccaneers still have a path to the postseason, they have not shown many signs of fixing their issues quickly.
Controversial Team
The Denver Broncos are the most controversial inclusion when distinguishing NFL Playoff Picture Contenders vs Pretenders. At 12-3, they look secure on paper, but their vulnerabilities are real. Everything hinges on Bo Nix. When he is confident and decisive, Denver looks dangerous. When he struggles, the offense stalls completely. The loss to Jacksonville was alarming. Nix made questionable decisions, threw a costly interception, and looked overwhelmed at times. For a team built around defense, allowing Trevor Lawrence to throw three touchdowns and nearly 280 yards at home raised concerns. The AFC is wide open and the most open it’s been in years especially with no Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Denver is very talented, but their ceiling depends entirely on their young quarterback handling playoff pressure.
True Contenders
The Seattle Seahawks are a team no one wants to face, especially at home. Sam Darnold answered major questions with his performance in the comeback win over the Rams on Thursday night. That moment mattered, as he needed to win a big game. When Darnold plays with confidence, Seattle’s balanced offense and physical defense make them extremely dangerous.
The Los Angeles Rams may be the most feared team in all of football. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and the offense becomes nearly unstoppable when everything clicks. If the Rams enter the playoffs as a wild card, they could be one of the most dangerous postseason teams in recent memory. Few teams would welcome that matchup. They will also be getting superstar receiver Davante Adams back, likely for playoffs as he nurses a hamstring injury.
As January approaches, the gap between shaky playoff teams and true contenders continues to widen. Some teams are surviving. Others are built to win when it matters most.
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